Both the Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers are slipping to some extent. This Big Ten battle promises to be low-scoring, as our college basketball picks explain.
Two Big Ten teams that have gone through some recent struggles will square off on Sunday afternoon as the Michigan State Spartans head to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers.
Michigan State has lost two of its last three games and now stands at 13-6 overall (5-3 in conference). Indiana has lost six of its last 11 games and is 12-6 overall (3-4 in conference).
Which early season contender will turn things around on Sunday? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs Indiana on Sunday, January 22nd to find out.
Best Michigan State vs Indiana odds
Michigan State vs Indiana picks and predictions
This game will really be a battle of offense versus defense. Michigan State ranks 66th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 65.0 points per game. However, they themselves are averaging just 69.7 points per contest, which ranks 225th in the nation.
On the other hand, Indiana ranks 39th with 79.0 points per game. However, they allow 67.7 per contest, which ranks 139th. The Hoosiers will continue to be without two seniors in Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson. Both players were starters and averaged 18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per game.
In the four games played without Johnson and Thompson, Indiana has gone 2-2, averaging 73.0 points and allowing 69.8 points per game. They were negatively impacted on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Michigan State will again be without Malik Hall, who has missed much of the season early.
The Spartans are 7-2 with Hall in the lineup, but 6-4 without him. Both of Michigan State’s tough games of the season came without this senior leader in the lineup. In the nine games with Hall, the Spartans averaged 72.4 points per game and allowed 64.9 points per game. While their defense remained strong, the offense has suffered without Hall.
Michigan State likes to slow the game down and they will try to do that here in Indiana to give themselves a chance to get the win on the road. The Spartans rank 288th in possessions per game and rarely turn the ball over. They will be able to tap the clock on offense and find their best shot.
On the other hand, Indiana will have to work hard to get its opportunities, as the Spartans are allowing opponents to shoot just 40.2% from the field. This is likely to be a game of few possessions and fewer chances to score. I like the Under here regardless of who wins.
My best bet: Under 138.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Michigan State vs Indiana Spread Analysis
Finding road wins in the conference is what can separate the top title contenders from the rest. While the Spartans are not a top contender, they have impressed on the road thus far. They are 2-1 in such games, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin.
Despite the recent struggles, the Spartans have covered eight of their last 10 games. Indiana could be on a comeback, winning and sweeping each of the last two games. However, they failed to cover in eight of their previous nine contests. Things won’t get any easier on Sunday afternoon.
The Spartans are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against a team with a straight-up winning record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread win. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The loss is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two programs.
Michigan State will control the tempo and that will spell trouble for the Hoosiers. Indiana lost a similar game to Rutgers earlier this season in which they scored just 48 points. The Hoosiers will likely score more than that at home, but I like the Spartans to not only cover, but win outright on the road.
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Michigan State vs Indiana Over/Under Analysis
Indiana has had a lot of high-scoring games this season, but also some very low-scoring games. The Spartans have been much more consistent in their games, remaining relatively low scoring. They haven’t reached a game total of 150 points since December.
The under is 5-2 in Spartans last seven games following an ATS win, and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. They excel at forcing bad shots and limiting teams to take three points. Michigan State also has a strong opponent free throw percentage at 72.1%. This may seem pointless since you can’t defend free throws, but their style of play tires opponents out, which can affect free throw shooting.
The Hoosiers don’t attempt many threes (17.6 per game), ranking 329th in the country in attempts. Additionally, they grab just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 244th in the nation. They will struggle to put up points against this Michigan State defense, and that should lead to an Under.
Michigan State vs Indiana betting trend to know
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more college basketball trends for Michigan State vs. Indiana.
Michigan State vs Indiana Game Info
|Location:||Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN|
|Date:||Sunday, January 22, 2023|
|Tip:||12:00 PM ET|